Strategic Scenarios of the Post-War Recovery of the Aviation Transport Sustainable Development: The Case of Ukraine

The state and strategic scenarios to recover the sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine post-war period are studied. Research is fulfilled with scientific justification quantitative indicators macro-indicators maintaining trajectory medium-term perspective. starting point strategizing concept safety dimension as a management construct that contains general systemic view ways transfer from current object desired one includes stages identification strategizing. Identification involves an integral convolution dynamic weighting coefficients formalized limits safe existence. A new methodology used for strategizing, which, unlike classical forecasting methods (the past determines future), uses principle "the future determined by into future" based on method adaptive regulation theory. According defined methodology, three recovery were developed annual rates growth real aviation transport: realistic – 4.5%; optimistic 7.2% scenario entering optimal zone EU countries 10.4%. resulting dynamics components, macro is, fact, plan economy path development. Threats identified institutional measures proposed airlines national systems airports airfields, navigation services, industry, education science Ukraine. orientations environmentalization priorities infrastructure formulated, necessity pursue course towards carbon neutrality was proved.